AI Impact and International Economy: Progress or Deepening Inequality?
The World Trade Organization's World Trade Report 2025 sheds light on the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global GDP and trade. The growth in AI is projected to be a game-changer, increasing global GDP by 12 to 13 percent and expanding trade in goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040. However, the report also warns of an "AI divide," where the benefits may not be shared equally unless countries invest in digital infrastructure and AI-skilled workforce.
Without action, the benefits from AI could remain concentrated in high-income economies, leaving lower-income countries locked into long-term inequalities. International cooperation on AI is still embryonic, focused largely on ethics and safety, with little direct attention to trade. That must change to avoid AI becoming a current that pulls some further behind.
Over 92% of enterprises now prioritize AI skills in hiring, across product management, analytics, and leadership. The divide is not just across economies, it also runs through labor markets, with AI potentially replacing tasks in many medium- and high-skilled jobs, reducing demand for those roles.
If low-income economies improve digital infrastructure and expand AI adoption, their GDP gains jump dramatically, up to 15 percent compared to 14 percent for middle-income economies and 12 percent for high-income ones. The growth in AI will not be shared equally unless countries invest in digital infrastructure and skills.
The divide is particularly prevalent in Asia, especially Southeast Asia, where the capital demand for infrastructure renewal and expansion is highest, totaling around 70 trillion dollars by 2040—double that of the rest of the world combined. Countries most at risk of falling behind economically due to lack of investments in digital infrastructure and AI-skilled workforce are primarily in this region.
In contrast, within Germany, federal states like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia show the weakest digital infrastructure, suggesting higher risk there compared to leading states like Hamburg, Berlin, and Bavaria.
Education is a critical tool to prepare workers for the shift towards AI. However, a divide exists: less than one-third of developing nations have national AI education strategies, while wealthier countries are integrating AI into their classrooms, research, and skill-building programs. Manish Jha, CTO of Addverb, emphasizes the role of IITs in bridging the skills divide, with curricula being redesigned to embed AI literacy across disciplines.
Chaitra Vedullapalli, Co-founder of Women in Cloud, suggests that IITs should evolve into launchpads that enable students to build, ship, and scale with modern curricula, industry co-ops, and founder-friendly spinouts to anchor India's AI leadership. Ankush Sabharwal, Founder and CEO of CoRover, argues that engineers are central to the AI transformation, with AI freeing them from mundane tasks to focus on critical thinking, system design, and innovation.
The uneven distribution of AI gains underscores the risk of an "AI divide," where lower-income economies risk being left further behind if they lack the infrastructure and policies to integrate AI. The global "skill premium" could shrink by 3-4 percent due to AI, but the reality is more complicated as AI may replace certain jobs in the labor market.
The WTO report highlights that the next decade is a "moment of strategic choice." The right investments in infrastructure, education, and cooperation can narrow divides, expand opportunities, and strengthen the multilateral trading system. International cooperation on AI, with a focus on trade, is crucial to ensure that the benefits of AI are shared globally and that no country is left behind in the AI revolution.
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