Art Industry Inner Circles Share Their Forecasts for 2025: A Glimpse into the Future of Art
The art world is gearing up for a bustling 2025, with the prints market expected to return to pre-2019, pre-Covid levels, sustaining sales without dramatic price surges. This optimistic outlook, however, is tinged with increasing ambivalence due to policy variables such as interest rates, tariffs, and taxes under the incoming Trump administration.
The art scene will witness a global celebration of African 20th-century masters in prestigious exhibitions worldwide, including the Art Institute of Chicago, Museum of Modern Art in New York, and Tate Modern in London. Sotheby's recent reversal of their fee structure will make the house more competitive, particularly for day sale consignments.
Blue-chip artists' works on paper and domestic-sized works are expected to offer an accessible entry point for acquiring prominent names in 2025. Private transactions are preferred channels for buyers and sellers due to increased discretion and access to exclusive opportunities.
The strength in the equities market could promote a turn away from the tentative market of 2023 and 2024, even with high interest rates. In 2025, the art market will embrace a broader and more inclusive range of voices, with a continued focus on women and artists from diverse cultural backgrounds.
There's a potential for a comeback of markets for Donald Judd, Dan Flavin, Ellsworth Kelly, and Christopher Wool in 2025. The year is expected to be busy with new biennials on multiple continents and high-profile museum openings.
The overall art market is projected to grow significantly, with estimated revenues of around USD 4.07 billion in 2025 and projected strong growth to about USD 14.58 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 17.3%. The museum sector is also expanding, with the global museum market valued at approximately USD 9.14 billion in 2025 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5%.
The online fine art market shows continued expansion, albeit with some recent contraction, with a value expected to reach USD 13.29 billion in 2025 and grow moderately at 6.73% CAGR to USD 18.41 billion by 2030. The broader arts and crafts market, which overlaps with creative expression and hobbyist engagement in art, is expected to grow from USD 67.9 billion in 2024 to around USD 102.2 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 7.1%.
While the incoming Trump administration's impact on the art market is uncertain, historically, political shifts can influence art markets via changes in cultural funding, trade policies, and international relations that affect art sales and museum operations. Given the increased private and government investments in museums and cultural projects noted for 2025, the administration's policy stance on arts funding, tariffs, and international cultural exchanges may either accelerate or constrain this growth.
New biennials and museum openings are key growth drivers in the cultural sector, increasing public engagement with contemporary art and stimulating local art markets. The growth in the museum market size implies that significant biennials and new institutional openings in 2025 will continue to positively impact the art ecosystem.
The global economic environment, including inflation, recession risks, and geopolitical tensions, may pose challenges to discretionary spending on art. However, the online art market benefits from convenience and digital authentication, attracting investors looking for stability amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The growing interest in fractional ownership and Old Masters as safe investments suggests a shift toward more secure art assets in volatile markets.
In conclusion, the art market in 2025 is poised for growth driven by institutional expansion and digital innovation, tempered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The incoming Trump administration's policies will be a key variable influencing this outlook, alongside the continuing evolution of new biennials and museum initiatives that foster cultural engagement and economic activity in the arts sector.
- The art world anticipates a resurgence of African 20th-century masters' exhibitions at prestigious galleries like the Art Institute of Chicago, Museum of Modern Art in New York, and Tate Modern in London.
- Sotheby's revised fee structure could make them more competitive in the auction market, primarily for day sale consignments.
- In 2025, works on paper and domestic-sized pieces by blue-chip artists are expected to serve as an accessible entry point for building a prominent art collection.
- Private transactions are favored due to their increased discretion and access to unique art opportunities in the art market.
- With a robust equities market, there may be a shift away from the conservative market of 2023 and 2024, even with high interest rates.
- The art market will continue to promote and highlight the works of women and artists from diverse cultural backgrounds in 2025.
- Markets for artists such as Donald Judd, Dan Flavin, Ellsworth Kelly, and Christopher Wool might make a comeback in 2025.
- The overall art market and museum sector are predicted to have substantial growth in 2025, with estimated revenues of around USD 4.07 billion and USD 9.14 billion, respectively.
- The online fine art market is expected to reach USD 13.29 billion in 2025 and moderate growth to USD 18.41 billion by 2030, while the broader arts and crafts market will grow from USD 67.9 billion in 2024 to around USD 102.2 billion by 2030.
- The incoming Trump administration's policies could influence the art market via changes in cultural funding, trade policies, and international relations, potentially accelerating or constraining growth.
- New biennials and museum openings will positively impact the art ecosystem, stimulating both local and global art markets.
- Geopolitical and economic uncertainties may challenge discretionary art spending, but the online art market's convenience and digital authentication could attract investors seeking stability amid macroeconomic volatility. The growing interest in fractional ownership and Old Masters suggests a shift toward more secure art assets in unpredictable markets.
