Young Dreamers Chasing Mirages in High Inequality Nations
Believers in upward mobility are more prevalent among the youth in nations with substantial economic inequality.
A fascinating study revealed that in countries like Albania, Jamaica, or Kazakhstan, youngsters are more optimistic about their future prospects compared to their counterparts in France or South Korea. But what seems like a positive outcome can be more of a time bomb, according to researchers.
In these high-inequality countries, hope often blooms like wildflowers among the weeds. This paradoxical situation is all too common, as reported by two experts in the journal "Science." Young people believe most fervently in their chances for upward mobility in countries with the most significant income disparities.
However, this hope may be illusory - and a powder keg for society. According to the researchers, social mobility - the ability to climb or descend the social ladder – is generally lower in countries with greater inequality. The risk of disillusionment, anger, and even social upheaval among the youth grows with each passing day.
Ideally, social mobility reflects equal opportunities, irrespective of family background, during times of sustained economic growth. Many youngsters once managed to exceed their parents' status, a trend supported by research conducted by Francesca Borgonovi from University College London and the OECD Centre for Skills, and Artur Pokropek from the Educational Research Institute in Warsaw.
Inequality on the Rise
Sadly, income distribution has become more unequal in many countries compared to just a few decades ago. In Germany, for example, income disparity has increased significantly over the long term; however, a slight decrease has been observed recently due to the rise in the statutory minimum wage, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office.
Increased inequality also involves a stronger connection between a family’s financial status and a child’s future prospects, as stated by Borgonovi and Pokropek. The rich get richer, and the poor simply can't keep up.
The Magic of the Great Gatsby Curve
This pattern of lower social mobility in countries with greater inequality is known as the Great Gatsby Curve. Surprisingly, young people in these countries have the highest expectations for upward mobility, as demonstrated by data from the PISA study.
On average, many 15-year-olds from lower social backgrounds still anticipate a much higher status later on. In Germany, for example, about 29 percent still hope for such an outcome, whereas in countries like Albania, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, and Romania, even around 40 percent exhibit similar expectations. In South Korea (18 percent), Malaysia (20 percent), and France (22 percent), fewer young people in this group share this aspiration.
A Sea of Optimism
For this investigation, the opinions of approximately 390,000 students from 57 countries, including Germany, Spain, Albania, Brazil, the USA, Indonesia, and Vietnam, aged 15, were taken into account. They were asked, among other things, to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 where they envisioned themselves in their country's social hierarchy at the age of 30. Most 15-year-olds imagine surpassing their parents' social status in every country surveyed. Education is often seen as the key to success.
Missing the Mark?
Young people may struggle to distinguish whether status differences are due to personal efforts or unearned privileges. Their expectations might be shaped by popular success narratives that often fail to align with actual chances for upward mobility.
Unrealized expectations can lead to a decrease in well-being, less trust in institutions, lower civic engagement, and even political strife, as stated in the "Science" article.
Unyielding Hope
Surprisingly, sustained economic growth appears to have minimal impact on society: if everyone's standard of living generally improves, young people may achieve a better status than their parents, barely noticing the gap between more privileged peers, thus maintaining social cohesion despite widening income disparities and reduced social mobility.
However, the economic situation is changing - and the unquenchable thirst for a better tomorrow can be as dangerous as a poisonous brew when left untouched.
- Despite the higher optimism about future prospects among youngsters in high-inequality countries like Jamaica, the researchers find this optimism to be a potential time bomb, as social mobility is generally lower in these countries.
- In countries witnessing a rise in income inequality, such as Germany, young people's aspirations often exceed their actual chances for upward mobility.
- The pattern of lower social mobility in countries with greater inequality is known as the Great Gatsby Curve, and young people in these countries hold the highest expectations for upward mobility.
- In many countries, including those like Albania, the optimism of 15-year-olds about surpassing their parents' social status is around 40%, while in South Korea, France, and some others, the figure is lower.
- Unrealized expectations among young people can lead to a decrease in well-being, less trust in institutions, lower civic engagement, and even political strife.
- The unquenchable hope for a better tomorrow might be as dangerous as a poisonous brew when left untouched, considering the changing economic situation.
- Education and self-development, career development, personal finance, business, finance, workplace-wellness, health-and-wellness, and mental health are essential aspects in helping young people to navigate their expectations and achieve sustainable upward mobility.
