Bolivia's Milei 2.0 Movement: Could Signal the Decline of Socialist South America?
In the recent 2025 presidential elections in Bolivia, no left-wing candidate secured an outright victory, leading to a scheduled runoff election on October 19 between Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira and former president Jorge Quiroga. This marks a significant political shift, representing a "stunning blow" to the long-dominant Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which had ruled Bolivia for 20 years.
The economic landscape in Bolivia is facing serious challenges amid this political transition. The country is experiencing an economic crisis characterized by record-high inflation and shortages of basic goods. The political uncertainty from the tightly contested election and runoff further complicates efforts to stabilize the economy and restore confidence.
Rodrigo Paz, a center-right politician, took the lead with around 30% of the votes. Conservative former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga followed with 27% of the votes. Incumbent President Luis Arce, the successor of Evo Morales, is struggling with a severe economic crisis, including a fuel shortage and an inflation rate of almost 25%.
The economic crisis in Bolivia, marked by high inflation rates, currency devaluation, increasing public debt, and declining foreign exchange reserves, has worsened significantly over the past ten years. The right-wing opposition in Bolivia attributes the economic crisis to excessive public spending, loss-making state-owned enterprises, and continued dependence on raw materials.
The Movement for Socialism (MAS), which had dominated the country's politics for two decades, only managed about 3% of the votes. The election reflects a dramatic loss of power by MAS, which had ruled the country since the first election of indigenous president Evo Morales in 2005.
The resistance from indigenous communities in Bolivia is due to concerns about environmental destruction and lack of participation. Projects to exploit Bolivia's lithium reserves, which are the largest in the world, have been stalled for years due to political power struggles and resistance from indigenous communities.
The political turnover in Bolivia is part of a broader right-wing shift in several Latin American countries, led by Argentina. Hard-line reform politicians like Milei in Argentina and others like Noboa in Ecuador and Bukele in El Salvador are emulating this ideology. However, left-wing governments continue to govern in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico, and it's premature to speak of the end of left-wing governments in Latin America.
In the legislative elections held concurrently, all seats in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate were elected. The Senate consists of 36 members elected by department. Bolivia’s compulsory voting system and method of simultaneous voting for president and legislators mean the election results impact overall governance dynamics going forward.
This period represents a critical juncture for Bolivia’s political landscape and economic stability. The runoff results and ensuing policy responses will be key to shaping Bolivia’s future trajectory.
References: [1] BBC News. (2025, October 19). Bolivia election: Rodrigo Paz Pereira and Jorge Quiroga to face off in runoff. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-58965687 [2] The Guardian. (2025, August 17). Bolivia election: Rodrigo Paz Pereira and Luis Arce advance to runoff vote. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/17/bolivia-election-rodrigo-paz-pereira-and-luis-arce-advance-to-runoff-vote [3] Reuters. (2025, August 17). Bolivia's MAS party suffers heavy defeat in presidential election. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivias-mas-party-suffers-heavy-defeat-presidential-election-2025-08-17/ [4] The New York Times. (2025, October 19). In Bolivia, a Right-Wing Shift as Voters Turn Away From Socialism. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/world/americas/bolivia-election-conservative-shift.html
